As new tracking polls show President Barack Obama benefiting from a big post-convention bounce, Mitt Romney‘s presidential campaign is starting to sound a little bit panicky.
In a new campaign memo circulated this morning, Romney’s pollster Neil Newhouse warns people not to get “too worked up about the latest polling.”
“While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly,” Newhouse writes. “The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.”
You can read the whole memo below, but the gist of Newhouse’s argument is that, regardless of what the polls say right now, the President will never be able to escape the terrible economy.
“President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work,” Newhouse states. “The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.”
Newhouse points to polls that show Romney and Obama locked in a tight race in many of the key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election, and notes that, in most recent polls, Romney still leads Obama on economic issues.
Interestingly, the memo deviates from the straight numbers message typical of most polling reports, and offers a wide-ranging explanation for why Obama’s polling lead is actually deceptive, highlighting Romney’s fundraising advantage, target advertising campaign, and voter mobilization efforts as factors that give Republicans an advantage that is not yet showing up in the polls.
The bottom line is that people don’t send “don’t freak out” memos unless people are in fact freaking out.
Read the full memo below: