The August Non-Farm Payrolls Report comes out today at 8:30 AM, and it’s already been called The Most Politically Important Jobs Report of all time.
There are only 3 jobs reports left before the November election, and this one is coming right after Obama’s acceptance of the nomination.
So what to expect?
Here are the consensus numbers, via Bloomberg:
- Total Non-Farm Payrolls: +130K
- Change in private payrolls: +142K
- The unemployment rate 8.3% (flat from the previous month).
- Change in manufacturing jobs: +10K
The headline Non-Farm Payrolls expectation was actually expected to be lower than that, but then today we got a monster jobs number from ADP (which uses payroll data to estimate private payroll gains).
As you can see in this bar chart, it was one of the best ADP reports of the Obama Presidency.
Unfortunately, although ADP generally over time has been in line with Non-Farm Payrolls, on a month-to-month basis, they can be pretty far apart.
That being said, this wasn’t the only good news on the jobs front.
Weekly initial jobless claims continue to hover near their best levels of the past several years.
Another interesting dynamic is the split between manufacturing jobs (which are exposed to weak foreign economies) and service jobs (which are domestically leveraged).
The red line comes from the ISM manufacturing index, and you can see it’s trending down. The blue line comes from ISM non-manufacturing, and it is trending up.
So those are the numbers we can’t wait to see.
Oh, and one more prediction. Regardless of how good or bad the numbers are, the number of healthcare workers in America will rise again.